So the week ends with the conclusion of Brexit result and half conclusion of India’s NSG membership (as November 2016 NSG meeting still holds a hope for India). At one hand world’s visual media hyped the Brexit issue and on the other hand India’s visual media obsessively hyped the NSG issue under full political glaze. Though the final results have been the triumph of realism over idealism, they reiterated once again that most of the times realists could predict the international politics with a better accuracy rate. Both of these issues have implications on India’s future but here I would like to take on the issue of NSG membership.
So before proceeding further it should be clear what NSG is actually about? NSG is an elite club which decides rules of the nuclear trade, it was formed after India’s Operation Smiling Buddha of 70’s by which India demonstrated its nuclear capabilities. The main purpose of NSG at that time was to not let India access nuclear materials and we faced this nuclear apartheid until Operation Shakti (late 90’s nuclear test) by Vajpayee Ji’s govt. which was coincided with China’s rise and since then the US trying to get India into its camp. It is here to be mentioned that post Operation Shakti, Govt. of India wrote a secret letter to the US’s President where it was mentioned that China was the main reason behind that test and tactically that letter was leaked by the White House.
So the issue is now why India wants to be a member of NSG? There are many valid reasons behind it like- it will help us to have a say in nuclear trade rule formulation, we have got NSG waiver in 2008 so membership is the next step, India’s remarkable record in nuclear non proliferation, it would show India’s new stature in international politics, in domestic politics it would help the BJP party, easy nuclear trade with other countries, future security in nuclear trade, apart from these the main reason behind it is, because the US wants it. The US has been pressing for it since 2011 but UPA-II regime was somehow reluctant to move forward. And when same has been pitched again to Modi’s govt. ,then they take a call. Finalization of NSG membership would be NDA’s answer to UPA’s Indo-US nuclear deal ( at that time the US & China had better relation due to rise in trade & this deal took place after a last-minute call of then the US President Bush to then China’s President Hu Jintao, who was resisting NSG waiver to India.)
But then again the main issue is why the US wants us to be NSG member? The answer is simple ‘the China factor’; the whole South Asia policy of the US is linked with its ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy i.e. to check the rise of China. Earlier Pakistan factor had held the US back but in change scenario where the US Congress & Senate see the double game plan of Pakistan, it’s all natural that now the US will explicitly move towards India to check the China. A Fact check-The US-based company Westinghouse is going to set up nuclear reactors AP1000 in India and it should be noted that majority of shares of Westinghouse is with Toshiba, a Japanese company and the historical rival of China. So getting India into NSG board will definitely undermine China who is hypersensitive about its nationality & sovereignty, and China can easily see what they are up to. But now let’s decode the bigger & smarter game plan of the US which has still gone unnoticed, if China delays or creates a problem for India’s NSG membership then it will in some way make Indo-US relations stronger and if China didn’t then also India would owe this inclusion to the US. So either way there would be only one winner – “the US”. In fact China is clueless and is in dilemma with the US latest diplomacy stroke.
Finally irrespective of fate of India’s NSG membership the main battle will be very soon take place in the South China Sea. South China Sea is now destined to be the next battlefield of 21st century in very near future, it would be a battle between capitalists to be led by sovereign nation states headed by the US & China. History repeat itself, world is a graveyard of histories, history is always cyclical in nature, these are some narratives which every hardcore realist believe in and they are not totally wrong after all. If we see present world situation then it is no better than world war 2 times (1930’s era of post great depression when there was economy slowdown, rise in unemployment, rise of right-wing, rise of debt, social unrest, immigration issue etc) and the only thing which has been preventing a war is ‘the nuclear weapon’ so in a way we are living in a world war 2 times plus nuclear weapon. At last I would like to say that all of us should be thankful to ‘the nuclear weapons’ or else useless bloodshed is inevitable in current situation, n-bomb has constructively been playing the role of weapon of peacemaker in the modern world. We should be thankful to Manhattan project, shouldn’t we?